Moderate Moment | Moderate Moms

Posts Tagged ‘Gallup Poll’

Polls show a majority of Americans support Gay Marriage

Polls Show Consistent Gains in Support for Same-Sex Marriage

By ALLISON KOPICKI /New York Times 

With the Supreme Court hearing arguments on Tuesday about the constitutionality of Proposition 8, the 2008 California ban on same-sex marriage, a number of recent polls show that a majority of Americans support legalizing it.

A CBS News poll released Tuesday showed that 53 percent of Americans say it should be legal for same-sex couples to marry, up from 46 percent in a New York Times/CBS News poll last July.

The poll found that a third of Americans who support legal marriages for same-sex couples said they did not always feel that way and had changed their thinking for a variety of reasons. Among those who changed their minds, one in five said that personally knowing someone who is gay or lesbian influenced them. Other reasons volunteered by respondents included increased tolerance (17 percent) or education (17 percent) and that support for same-sex marriage is the modern way of thinking about the issue (12 percent).

More Americans now report having a friend, family member or work colleague who is gay or lesbian, with 61 percent saying so, up from 44 percent in 2003. Among those with a close relationship to someone who is gay or lesbian, two-thirds support legalizing same-sex marriage; among those who do not know someone close who is gay or lesbian, 56 percent say gay marriage should not be legal.

Support for legalizing same-sex marriage is higher among Democrats (63 percent) and independents (56 percent) than Republicans (37 percent). Among younger Americans support is higher, with nearly three-quarters of those under 30 in support, compared with slightly more than half of those over 65 who say it should not be legal.

The CBS News poll was conducted by telephone from Wednesday through Sunday among 1,181 adults nationwide, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.

A Pew Research Center report released last week described the increase in support for same-sex marriage over the last 10 years as among the largest shifts in American public opinion on any policy issue. In 2003, nearly 6 in 10 Americans opposed same-sex marriage, while about a third favored allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally. Pew’s recent survey found Americans have shifted substantially on the issue, with 49 percent supporting and 44 percent opposing same-sex marriage.

Other recent surveys have found similar trends, although variations in question wording produce slightly different levels of support among the polls. A CNN/ORC poll conducted March 15 to 17 found 53 percent of Americans said that marriages between gay and lesbian couples should be recognized by the law as valid, with the same rights as traditional marriages, and 44 percent said they should not – numbers that flipped from 2008, when 44 percent said the law should recognize these marriages as valid.

poll conducted the first week of March by ABC News/Washington Post showed 58 percent of Americans saying same-sex marriage should be legal, and 36 percent saying it should be illegal. Support for same-sex marriage has steadily tracked upward in ABC/Post polls, from 37 percent in favor a decade ago, to a narrow majority supporting legalizing it in 2011.

Fox News poll conducted March 17 to 19 showed 49 percent of voters in favor of legalizing same-sex marriage, up from 42 percent last year.

And a Gallup poll found that a slim majority of Americans said they would vote for a hypothetical law giving marriage benefits to gay federal government workers who are legally married. Fifty-four percent of Americans said they would vote for a law providing marriage benefits, including insurance, tax benefits and Social Security to same-sex partners of federal employees, while 39 percent said they would vote against such a law. The poll was conducted March 11 and 12.

All polls were conducted by live interviewers nationwide using landlines and cellphones, with margins of sampling error ranging between three and four percentage points.

 

 

Gallup puts Romney way ahead despite other polls showing it’s neck and neck

Article courtesy of the Examiner.com:

The latest NBC/WSJ Poll released Sunday shows the presidential race dead even at 47% each. Other polls show the same but the Gallup Poll shows Romney with a huge lead. Is Gallup an outlier? No candidate has lost when Gallup showed them in the lead at this stage of the race. But, there is a first time for everything.

If you average all the recent national polls, the race is a tie according to Real Clear Politics. If you remove Gallup since it is a potential outlier, Obama has a slim lead. The New York Times 538 Blog still gives Obama a 67% chance of winning the Electoral College. The Romney campaign and his surrogates think that it is time for Mitt to order the car elevator for the White House.

So who will win?

There are several factors to consider. First of all, the polls that show the race a tie or tilting to Obama, with the exception of Gallup, are polls of likely voters. When registered voters are considered, Obama has a lead. What that means is that if every registered voter showed up on election day, Obama would be re-elected. But, on average, less than two thirds of registered voters in this country vote. So it depends on whose voters stay home.

If the race comes down to turnout, there are two schools of thought. One is that Romney has the advantage because most of his supporters are voting against Obama and not for him. That is less the case with Obama supporters. Generally, people who are against something are more likely to vote.

There is a possible spoiler; Obama has a far better and more extensive ground game. Already in early voting, more than two thirds of the ballots cast or requested have come from Democrats in swing states. That does not mean game-over because Republicans tend to vote on election day. So unless there is a terrible blizzard in Republican counties Nov. 6th, the early voting advantage may be neutralized.

Another factor to consider about national polls is that the popular vote does not elect a President. We saw that in 2000 when Gore won the popular vote but the Supreme Court selected Bush as President. National polls only become relevant if one candidate leads by 5% or more. In that case, a rising tide raises all boats.

The battle for the Electoral College comes down to a hand full of “swing states.” The latest polls in swing states still show Obama winning albeit by an ever smaller margin. Unless the last debate or some other factor intervenes, the swing states will decide whether there is a car elevator at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.

Just as in 2000, the vote is swing states is likely to be decided by a few to a few hundred votes in just a few counties. Mike Schneider and Thomas Beaumont of Associated Press have boiled the race down to 106 counties out of the more than 50,000 counties in the United States. Those counties went for Bush in 2004, Obama in 2008. Whoever wins these, they say, will win the election.

Those counties are in New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Colorado, and Nevada. Current swing state polls are somewhat mixed in these states, but averaging the polls, Obama is leading in Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Virginia, and Nevada. Virginia goes back and forth. Obama once held a 9 point lead in Ohio, but it is down to 2 points. For that matter, Obama once led in all these states, but the race is getting closer.

Remembering Florida in 2000, the scary thing is how many of these states will need to go through a recount to decide who gets that state’s electoral votes? Another X factor is that Maine and Nebraska apportion votes by Congressional District. In 2008, Obama lost Nebraska but got one electoral vote from Omaha. This year, Romney could steal a vote from Maine. This could put the electoral count into a tie. That means the Republican House of Representatives would pick Romney as President.

Nate Silver of the Thirty Eight blog thinks that on this Sunday, things still favor Obama. If he is right, Obama will win. If he is wrong, the White House garden will be replaced by a new car elevator.